Jul 15, 2011

Why do most sports bettors lose?

Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas Mavericks) at the free-t...Image via Wikipedia
Most sports bettors prefer to bet against the spread, spread also known as "point spread" or "line" which is one of the most common way to bet. a spread bet is one team must win by a certain margin for a bet to be winner. For example in an NBA spread bet (Miami Heats -6.5) against (Cleveland Cavaliers +6.5). Miami Heats must won the games with 7 scores more in order to win the bet.

The Line bet in theory ought to give bettors a 50% chance of selecting a winner over a given bet on. Juice has been offering the sportsbook an advantage, which but not invincible - and undoubtedly vulnerable to a large number of bettors to go more than to pocket some lucky victories.

Let's take into account of some numbers. In case you bet five games a week throughout the NFL season (17 weeks), there would be 51 games. Let's keep the math in simple and say that you just play only 50 games and you bet $ 10 flat per game. Should you pick 27 winners and 23 losers, you happen to be up $ 17 by the end with the season. You've chosen 54%, that is certainly the binomial distribution tells us that 24% of monkeys throwing darts at a board (random guess) could also do. So why do much less than 5% of sports bettors make income on NFL games?

It just isn't simply because they're unfavorable winners. It's not due to sports betting and the juice can not win - even if the juice is tough to overcome. The true reason is that most bettors overbet their bankroll. They bet far more money than they should. Bookmakers are in accordance with this to make their living.
What could be the appropriate amount to bet? This really is a subject of debate. Think about an ideal situation. Allow us pretend that we can safely say that our capability to pick winners is 54%. We can't know for sure, according to 50 bets, but we make a hypothesis that allows us to apply the Kelly criterion for our situation.
f = (bp-q) / b
b = 10/11 or 0.9091
p = 0.54, q = 0.46
tells us that we need to invest only 3.4% of our bankroll on each pick.

Place your bet rationally - watch your bankroll to bet!

Consider carefully. With perfect knowledge as well as the huge advantage of getting in a position to pick up 54% against the spread, you need to be betting only 3.4% of your bankroll. It's not much. Bet more than that and your back will fall. Rates more than double (> 6.8%), and it is possible you'll be able to expect to lose cash even should you can get an amazing 54% winners. If you commit to 10% or much more of your bankroll on a single game? Most sports bettors do. Most of them lose $ and ruin their bankroll.

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